History: COVID 20

Monday April 20, 2020 will be known in history as the End of an Era (Pre-COVID) and the beginning of a new one (Post-COVID). The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) got its name from a disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) (Source: WHO). It got its name because it was first discovered in Wuhan, China in 2019 (New Scientist). In 2020, the pandemic is far bigger than just a disease caused by the virus. It has far-reaching economic, social and political implications. COVID20 is the handle used to describe these events that have come into focus in 2020. But as is true of every major watershed in history, there are antecedents that led up to the crisis and the world after it, will not be the same as it was before.

Why April 20th? It is the day that the restrictions caused by the COVID Lockdown caused a negative crude oil price, in the first time in history (Forbes)

Now that you have seen this data, watch this video (youtube) to see why this is not the best representation of the data, and why this one is better. Didn’t I tell you …or did I?.. that epidemiology requires teasing out information from data?

This correction is thanks to Amit Fenn, our family biologist.

The spread of COVID 19 has yet to reach its peak, and yet COVID 20 is already here. COVID20 is an expanded version of the crisis that includes the socio-economic and political fall out of the disease as well as the direct impact of the continuing growth of the pandemic. COVID 19 was named such because the disease was first documented in China in Dec 2019 (see a timeline of events from WHO here), but COVID 20 is the state of things in 2020. Its no longer just a disease caused by the Novel Corona Virus, COVID 20 is not even just a health care problem, it’s much more than that. It has impacted our lives in far greater ways than any other disease since the Bubonic Plague of the 14th Century (History.com), that left almost 50% of the population of Europe dead.

India, like much of the world, has been under a 21-day lockdown since March 24th (BBC). The lockdown, like everything else, is the result of a set of circumstances that came together. The first is the growth of digital media, where such a plan can be formulated and sent out to a large number of people without delay. The second is the political reality of India, a combination of a Charismatic Prime Minister and a large number of dedicated party-workers. who worked tirelessly to give him a landslide electoral victory in 2019 (BBC). 2019 was a difficult year for India, the Indian economy was teetering on the edge by Dec 2019, and in a sense, it was a blessing in disguise that Covid 19 wiped the entire board clean.

When will we wake up from the nightmare?

Not for a long time. Perhaps the world will never get back to what it was Pre-Covid. First, there was the one day People’s Lockdown. Then came the 21 Day Lockdown on March 24th, 2020 Will it all end one day in April?

The short answer? NO. Antonio Guterres, the chief of United Nations is already calling it the most challenging crisis since the second world war. The Managing Director of the IMF, Kristaline Georgieva calls it Humanity’s Darkest Hour. The World Bank President, David Malpass put it in black and white on his LinkedIn post when he said: “Beyond the health impacts from the COVID-19 pandemic, we are expecting a major global recession.” Major events divide history into periods before and after the event. The second world war was such an event. the fall of Constantinople is often considered another one. In modern times, COVID 19 certainly qualifies as a catastrophe of global proportions. So what happened while the world was asleep? What kind of world will we awaken to?

1. Family & Personal Life

How has your personal life been affected by the Lockdown? Perhaps you found more time to pursue something you have been wanting to do for a long time, reading or perhaps practising that guitar that has been gathering dust in the corner. How has family-time changed your family? Has it helped to bring out and resolve some issues that were always brushed under the carpet? Perhaps you learnt to appreciate your family better? Or maybe you had time to take a philosophical bent of mind, to wonder about the fragility of life, perhaps even start a regular meditation practice that could potentially change your life forever. There are those who decided to use this time to learn something new, thanks to the number of good quality courses offered at discounts or offered for free.

Has there been a change in roles in the family? No longer does the man have to go to the office to earn a living. When everyone is stuck at home, has it changed the way things are done at home? Is there a greater family involvement in chores and how housework is shared?

Not all of the changes are positive. For some, it has been a trying time. Here is an email from a friend struggling with anxiety and panic disorder for 24 years: “ (When my anxiety increased), …Even my husband was surprised. I used to complain of loneliness and now i was not alone so why anxiety? One main reason was that I have this deep trust in doctors and now the place which is most safe for me ..hospitals/clinics are the most unsafe. So if I fall sick how can I get better without doctor’s help? My therapist said I am overthinking and my psychologist friend suggested that my husband tie me to a chair if I start screaming to go to emergency… unless I have something more serious than Covid19!“

2. The Environment:

For years our race to turn the tide of ecological damage has been a losing race. Those among us who were optimistic found themselves hard put to stay positive as each day brought news of further calamity. Even in February 2020, an iceberg the size of MALTA broke off from a glacier in Antarctica.

Increasingly desperate measures to put in place measurable quotas for reduction of greenhouse gases have met with considerable debate and discord, with many environmentalists in despair of reaching targets. Everyone was worried that the reduction of greenhouse gases would mean in some ways curtailing industrial output and this, in turn, would undermine the competitive edge of the country. Perhaps it would be the harbinger of a severe recession?

The Novel Corona Virus achieved what world leaders could not achieve with years of negotiation at Kyoto, Paris, etc. As economic activity shuts down and people stay at home, animals take to urban streets and global pollution levels have dropped significantly. Of the 30 most polluted cities of the world in 2019, 21 of them were in India (Wikipedia). The lockdown has had an unprecedented reduction of India’s pollution too. Even the earth’s crust seems to be healing (nature.com). Perhaps the COVID Virus will be the much-needed correction that our industry needs in order to save a dying planet. Perhaps the virus itself is an ecosystem responding to threats to its existence?

3. Healthcare

Perhaps nowhere else would the impact of COVID 19 be as direct as in healthcare management. The pandemic forced us to reconsider our priorities. Healthcare once again re-focussed priorities on the Economics of Healthcare, Public Health, Epidemiology and Prevention. This may bring about a sea change in THINKING when it comes to healthcare, and a focus on community and scientific prevention of the spread of communicable diseases like never before. Once again the health of the community is what is important and not just the patient within the walls of the hospital.

For decades the average age of people in developed nations has been getting higher. Healthcare systems work as long as there are young people working in the economy and paying for those who cannot work. A disease like COVID 19 would take a greater toll on those who are old and sick changing the profile of the “herd”. Much in the way, The Plague changed the demographics of 14th century Europe

4.Science

The 21st Century showed a distinct fall from grace when it comes to science. Although science helped us stave off hunger and disease, helped us fight wars, travel and communicate across vast distances, things began to change in the second half of the 20th century. The Atom Bomb forced us to see that science could have darker sides too. While the green revolution helped us escape the Malthusian Bomb, Rachel Carson opened our eyes to the price we had to pay for it. Add to it, several aspects of the post-modern world view also chipped away at the facade of science as a saviour of mankind. Young students moved away from college degrees in science, moving to business majors instead.

With a number of wild claims floating around about the Corona Virus there was a great need for credible information. And that meant people turned to experts and scientists for verifiable information. The medical community also was facing a crisis with many of the challenges of communicable diseases were already met. Of course, there was the spectre of Multi-Drug-Resistant germs, but it was yet to develop into a credible threat. Covid brought back the Romance of Medicine like a Robin Cook novel. It’s a high-stakes game of life or death. It includes sleuthing and incarceration and the heroes are the doctors.

5. Politics and International Institutions

Given the global shutdown of several sectors of the economy, there are many who predict a recession on a global scale. This may not be bad for everyone. By the end of 2019, the Indian economy was in shambles. This did not bode well for the ruling party. However, the COVID 19 was such shock that it wiped the books clean. Yes, we are still heading for a recession but the bad fiscal policy could no longer be faulted for it. The parallel with the impact of 9/11 on the 2001 economic crisis is unmistakable. In other parts of the world too, the Novel Corona Virus allowed people to further their own political agenda (The Guardian)

With the fall of the USSR and the passing of the cold war era, many things have changed on the world stage of geopolitics. With the end of the Warsaw Pact (Brittanica) and the emergence of a new unipolar era (or is it multipolar? – Taylor and Francis), the role of International Institutions like the United Nations and World Health Organization have lost much of its relevance. However, with a pandemic like COVID 19, spreading across the globe with scant regard to political borders, the only way to contain it is to join hands to take a stand against it. Once again, agencies of international collaboration like the WHO, IMF and the World Bank, have new relevance in today’s age. Perhaps it is the beginning of a new era of international collaboration. Certainly, the one thing that is obvious, is that the piece-meal approach to global problems is not working!

6. Economics

We were already aware that the system needed change. In an interview with Forbes, Steven Chu likened the (Pre-COVID) world economy to a global Ponzi scheme. A significant number of economists believe that economic progress is reflected in Economic Growth, ie; an increase in the goods produced and sold in any economic unit like a country. This leads to an unhealthy focus on production and consumption for its own sake. Economies are measured by the percentage of “growth“. Consume more, then the producers will make more, which will create more jobs and this will put more money in the pockets of consumers who will, in turn, buy more. Is it just me…. or does this sound like a Ponzi Scheme? COVID 19 has shown us that we do not have robust social institutions that can protect our weaker sections. Wealth distribution is flawed with the top 10% holding over 75% of the wealth of India. It is time to recognize our economic models are flawed. Perhaps it is time for our Economic Model to Change

Economic growth is usually distinguished from economic development, the latter term being restricted to economies that are close to the subsistence level. 

https://www.britannica.com/topic/economic-growth

But there is another crisis playing out, the unorganized sector(Times of India ). A large number of people in India who live a hand to mouth existence. Each day’s wages from labour is what puts food on the table. Large numbers of men who work in other states far from their own families find that they do not have wages to pay the rent or money to send home. Without this families will go hungry, crime is likely to increase as people get desperate, and the death toll would be significant. It would not be a surprise to find that, at least in India, more people die from the economic hardships of COVID 19 than the virus itself. This is COVID 20.